No, I’m not asking WHO you are going to vote for at this point.
I’m more interested in HOW you are going to vote.
The difference?
The pollsters and the media are trying to convince us that we’ve already made up our minds. Hillary and Rudy are “ahead.” Barack and Fred are in “second-place.” Edwards and McCain are “trailing.”
Doesn’t all this sort of make you feel that the process is a fait accompli? Not one vote has been cast, yet so many commentators and news analysts are already talking as if it’s a foregone conclusion who the nominees are going to be.
I actually heard Tim Russert say on the radio last week that the 2008 Presidential election was going to be over in two months! The implication being that once Iowa and New Hampshire are done voting, there’s no point in the rest of us showing up again until November!
So as you are considering WHO you are going to vote for (please promise me you’ll vote), I’m curious HOW you’re going to arrive at your decision.
Will you vote by consensus or by conscience? Should we cast our ballots for the candidate who seems to have a better chance or has the lead or the one who resonates with our personal philosophies and views about what our country should be and could be?
I have one small glimmer of hope about these supposed foregone conclusions.
The polls we see on the news by CNN and ABC and NBC are national polls. We don’t have a national primary — we have state primaries. So unless we’re going to take separate polls for Iowa and New Hampshire and every other state, there’s only so much stock you can put in the national polls. They’re not necessarily showing us the real picture.
And don’t be fooled. Have you looked at the “margins of error?” One of my college political science professors was adamant that unless the margin of error of a poll was plus/minus three percent or less, it wasn’t any more than a guess with some numbers attached to make it look scientific!
The margin of error on some of the big news polls is as high as plus/minus seven percent!!
With the coverage of all the various polls, many people may think that if Hillary Clinton is so far ahead at this point for the Democrats and that Rudy Giuliani is the GOP front-runner, why bother to take the time to show up on primary day?
Maybe I’m naive, but if we stopped listening to the polls and just showed up and voted for the candidate who each of us thought would do the best job and resonated with our individual values (whatever those might be), then maybe the best man or woman really would end up in the White House.
November 12th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
OMG! You’re actually talking about real margins of error. Thank you!!!!
I’m glad I’m not the only one who goes pfft to polls with margins of error over 3. I so get “the look” when I do that. haha!
November 12th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
OOOOO — Veronica! We’re PoliSci geeks!
November 12th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
If it were up to me, there’d be no stinkin’ polls. All they do is insert bias and entice people to vote for who they think will win (based on polls) rather than who they think will be the best candidate. That’s who polls are designed for… not the people who have looked at the issues and decided for themselves (people like me).
November 12th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Oh, and to answer how I will vote. I will look at several qualities/issues that are most important to me, plus whether or not the person seems trustworthy, responsible and willing to work within the system (rather than acting like a dictator) to get things done.
(Sorry, I was so worked up about the polls, I failed to address the essay portion of the post. LOL!)
November 12th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
The hubby and I were just talking about this very issue this weekend. I’m usually a huge defender of the media, but this time around they seem to be doing a disservice by proclaiming the race all but over.
How will I vote? Carefully after considering all the options.
November 12th, 2007 at 7:40 pm
Oh my — I cast my first presidential ballot for someone who wasn’t even in one of the two major parties, so I’ll be (still, doggedly and with deep wounds : -) voting for the candidate who embodies my ideals.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
i’m actually struggling with this, because as much as I really want to vote conscience, i also want to vote for someone I think can beat the bad guys, and what if they are not the same person? can I really vote for the best candidate if I don’t think they can win, if my vote for my second or third choice is more likely to actually HELP and get a “better than the alternative” candidate into power? i hate that i even think that way, but there it is.
November 13th, 2007 at 12:01 am
I have not decided who to vote for in the primary; I’m tempted to vote for Kucinich, who is the only one who actually tried to impeach one of these clowns in office. And I seem to agree with him most closely on the issues.
November 13th, 2007 at 1:46 am
frankly i am annoyed with the fact that this presidential campaign started so flippin’ early. nevermind that i am underwhelmed with my choices but frankly, by the time the primary makes it my way and then the election itself i might just feel like why bother. i’ll vote because i will always do but i will be yawning when i do.
November 13th, 2007 at 6:59 am
I have often thought the same things when I hear them speak about the polls on the news!
I will most certainly vote…and I will vote for the person I feel with do the best job for the country…not necessarily who I think has the best chance of winning!
November 13th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
Funny you should ask…
Last night, I got a phone call from a Pollster for the CBS Evening News & the NYT. I’m going to write up an entry about it, but the poll was of N.H. registered voters, and how I might vote. He wrapped up by asking if I’d be willing to do follow up polls as a NH voter (yes!) and participate in an on-line politics discussion group (Yes, yes!) How will I vote? I’m waiting and weighing my options.
Recently here in NH, it has been reported that Clinton and Romney currently hold the lead–but that only 16% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats polled had made up their minds. The remaining 84% and 76%, respectively, were undecided at poll time. Seems just as deceiving as huge margins of error.
And while I’m not an official PoliSci geek–gaping margins of error and the typical miniscule sample numbers relative to the overall population irk me too!!
November 14th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
I grew up in New Orleans where you’re taught to vote for the lesser of the two evils. I once drove back from college in Alabama to vote for Edwin Edwards (the crook) so David Duke (the former Klansman) wouldn’t win.
Now I live in Maine and technically I’m an Independent, though I registered as a Democrat in 2004. I don’t like any of the forerunners. The Democratic candidate that best fits my politics is Dennis Kucinich, but I’m afraid he won’t make it through the primaries.
As I’ve mentioned on my own blog, I’m hoping Lou Dobbs is right and an Independent candidate, who is the embodiment of everything this country needs right now, is going to show up before next November and be the November Surprise.
I know I live in a dream world.
November 14th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
I’ve heard that remark about Dennis A LOT. So maybe we need to start voting our guts instead of the winner? I personally am not sure who I’m going to vote for…one more bitch comment about Hillary and I’m voting for her just to piss people off! Barak keeps underwhelming me…too bad because I thought he could really pull this off.
punditmom…I’m a wannabe poliscigeek! And a wannabe pundit. Just a math nerd.
November 14th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
I didn’t say I wasn’t going to vote for Kucinich in the primaries. I just think he’s not going to make it through them.