Yes, we need a better plan for Afghanistan. But when I learned that more troops were headed there I thought, ‘Barack Obama may have just lost 2012.‘
I listened dutifully to the President’s speech last night, which you can see here. And there is some interesting follow-up chat on the plan for Afghanistan at “Rick’s List” — a new twitter idea from CNN’s Rick Sanchez and Eric Kuhn.
Sadly, it was pretty much what I expected — we’re sending more troops, we hope to train the Afghan military and police so they can take over, let’s encourage Afghan citizens to take on the Taliban themselves.
I understand that there are things in Pakistan we need to deal with, and we can’t do it by saying we’re sending troops there. But as President Obama spoke, I was reminded of a few of things:
1. Didn’t the Bush administration assure us that our military could train the Iraqis so their military and police could do what American troops were doing? That hasn’t worked out so well, so why should we think we will fare any better in Afghanistan?
2. At the beginning of the Iraq war, I remember reading an article that said the Pentagon was going to encourage military commanders to read up on the region they were being deployed to, including books on Iraq’s culture and history. I was shocked at the time that military leaders who were on the verge of invading Iraq didn’t have an understanding of how that region is different from other parts of the world and other conflicts. I hope someone has been brushing up on their Afghan history, at least in terms of how things went for the Soviets.
3. There was no mention how we are going to help the situation of Afghan women and girls. Increased presence of the Taliban over the last few years — the same Taliban that was supposed to have been defeated if I remember correctly — has made life pretty much a living hell for anyone there with two X chromosomes. Women and girls can’t even get medical treatment because women doctors are no longer allowed to work and men doctors are forbidden from seeing female patients. If this fundamental human rights issue isn’t addressed while we are trying to turn Afghanistan into a self-supporting society that we can leave by 2011, then I have to wonder if there’s any point to the rest of it. We can do all the training and supporting we want, but if we don’t have any influence over how a society treats women and girls, how can anything constructive be built?
There are a lot of “what ifs” in war. But when America is struggling to figure out why our economy is still in the tank, it’s going to be hard for many to get behind a request to support a war effort just one more time. That’s why I wonder what impact this decision in the first year of his presidency will have when Barack Obama announces his re-election bid in a few years.
Update: Another great column from Thomas Friedman on the plan for Afghanistan.
December 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Joanne, isn’t that question slightly simplistic? As a person who has been dismayed with numerous choices by this administration (and fearful that the list has only begun), I don’t think his decision/indecision regarding Afghanistan will be the only factor in President Obama’s re-election issues. I do see the irony that his decision managed to make nearly everyone unhappy…
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:29 pm
It’s the economy that will determine whether or not President Obama gets a second term. If he can turn that around, all else will be forgiven.
December 2nd, 2009 at 5:55 pm
There are a lot of factors in play which will determine Obama’s length of stay in the White House. I think he is a one-termer just because there are too many things that need “fixing” all at once and the economic downturn probably isn’t completely over. Americans, generally, are content to leave so-so Presidents in office only if they are economically okay themselves. By the time the summer of 2012, I don’t think there will be many people unaffected – even just marginally – by the hard times, and Presidents lose their jobs when Americans are forced by their discomfort to take a hard look at the people in power.
Obama isn’t likable enough and he is too moderate and he has pretty much kept things status quo since Bush. Where is the guy who campaigned with such charm and grace? Unless something really drastic happens to scare the population into staying his course, he is ripe for overthrow.
December 2nd, 2009 at 9:52 pm
It took a lot of courage to make a decision that displeases everyone, even his supporters. I hope his knowledge meets the level of his courage, or this could cost him dearly.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:51 am
Two things – I think the economy is going to have a far greater impact on the electorate than Afghanistan. Like it or not, the way our society is today, military conflict falls off people’s radar pretty quickly.
Our leaving Afghanistan as is will not help Afghani women and girls either. The taliban regain strength because the Bush Admin took their eye off the ball. I wrote a whole post on why it could be different this time, but one of the keys is that both Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to understand that military action is not the only tool in the kit.
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:29 pm
The one thing we must remember is that President Obama is working with liaisons and other allies and the Afghan/Pakistan leaders. This is a global initiative that respected people such as Dr. Rice and others have talked about since the campaign.
They have always said we were fighting the wrong war. I also believe that diplomacy is in the forefront and this is probably in response to some threats were are not aware of just yet.
As someone who was not initially on the Obama-bandwagon, now that I am here, I plan to support the ride.
I really hope that diplomacy and global respect win before we have to send anyone anywhere, is there any chance to that?
December 3rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Hey Joanne,
I am crazy about your website! I did not realize it was out there until recently and I am so pleased to see that you are bringing these issues to the forefront. While I am not yet a mother, I find that many girls my age do not get involved in politics because they often feel that it is more of a man’s topic or they just don’t care enough to! As someone with a political science degree and passion for world affairs, it drives me mad. I am truly thrilled to read a blog that is so eloquently written about such significant topics.
December 6th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
I already left a long comment on Open.Salon.com. I will just add that I agree with the commenters here who say the economy will determine Obama’s chances in 2012. In fact I am going to make a post about it now that I am worked up to fever pitch.