Predictions are always a dangerous thing, especially in an election that has been as contentious as the one between President Obama and Mitt Romney. While there is a feeling in the air that we are in a “perfect storm” set-up for a long election night as a result of self-appointed vigilante-like poll watchers, insufficient early voting resources and the probability that thousands upon thousands of voters may not be able to vote because of Hurricane Sandy, I still think we are going to know who will be president by the end of the night, albeit a very, very late night, on Tuesday.
I think we’ll know who won on Tuesday because I’m putting my faith in women voters. Women know how much is at stake for themselves, as well as for their families. The Center for American Women and Politics has collected the latest polling information about how women voters are leaning in nine battleground states, and virtually all of those polls show President Obama ahead with women voters, by margins ranging from one percent up to 25 percent.
Here’s how it breaks down in terms of the range of polls that tracked how women voters support for the candidates:
Colorado — polls range from 6% Romney to 14% Obama
Iowa – polls range from 1% to 18% Obama
Florida – polls range from 1% to 19% Obama
Nevada - polls range from 6% to 16% Obama
New Hampshire – polls range from 1% to 23% Obama
North Carolina – polls range from Romney/Obama tied to 12% Obama
Ohio – polls range from 2% to 25% Obama
Virginia - polls range from 2% to 19 % Obama
Wisconsin – polls range from 7% and 24% Obama
State polling generally is a more accurate indicator than national polls on how people are feeling and voting because as long as we have the Electoral College, we are a nation that votes by state.
Ladies … as I’ve said before, it’s no secret that we are the ones who can determine the outcome of this election. Be prepared with your photo ID (even though you shouldn’t need it), don’t back down to any self-appointed bullying poll watchers and make your vote count, no matter who you’re voting for.
And maybe have an extra glass of Chardonnay on hand, just to calm those nerves.
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